Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 25, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

audusd-25-10-2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.7640 but the bearish move has since been reversed. The moving averages are still bearish, suggesting that price could move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the horizontal resistance at 0.7640, around the longer-term moving average and if price closes below the horizontal support at 0.7585. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support though. If price closes above the horizontal resistance at 0.7640, price could attempt a bullish move.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Though recent US economic news has been disappointing and the Presidential election nears, shedding some doubt on a rate hike being sooner rather than later. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This will be followed by Australian CPI data at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

eurgbp-1h-ta

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP found resistance around the longer-term moving average and was bearish. As also suggested, the bearish move was short-lived due to the lack of downside momentum. Price is now moving sideways (ranging). Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. German Business Climate data is set to be released at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE Speech at 1435 UTC and a ECB Speech at 1530 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

eurusd-25-10-2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the shorter-term moving average and was bearish. As also suggested, the bearish move could not move lower and price is now retracing. The moving averages are still bearish, suggesting that price could move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and if price moves below the horizontal support at 1.0860.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Though recent US economic news has been disappointing and the Presidential election nears, shedding some doubt on a rate hike being sooner rather than later. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair. German Business Climate data is set to be released at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by a ECB Speech at 1530 UTC. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

gbpusd-25-10-2016

As mentioned a number of times now, the GBPUSD is ranging. The moving averages confirm the lack of price direction – they are crossing frequently and are tight. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Though recent US economic news has been disappointing and the Presidential election nears, shedding some doubt on a rate hike being sooner rather than later. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a BOE Speech at 1435 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

nzdusd-25-10-2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the 61.8% Fib level and reversed bearish around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages continue to be bearish, suggesting that price could move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.7115. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support area. If price moves above the trend resistance area and the moving averages, the NZDUSD may attempt to rally to the recent swing high of 0.7245.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have held rates at 2.00%. The NZD continues to seem steady and is one of the stronger currencies. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Though recent US economic news has been disappointing and the Presidential election nears, shedding some doubt on a rate hike being sooner rather than later. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

usdcad-25-10-2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed bullish around the previous horizontal resistance (now support) at 1.3280. The moving averages are still bullish and widening, suggesting that price could move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 1.3280. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3390.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. Recent Canadian economic figures have been poor but the recent appreciation in OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

usdchf-25-10-2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance and has since been bullish. The bullish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that buying momentum could be weakening. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.9955 and around any of the identified support and resistance areas on the above chart. If price finds resistance at 0.9955, the USDCHF may start retracing.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Though recent US economic news has been disappointing and the Presidential election nears, shedding some doubt on a rate hike being sooner rather than later. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

usdjpy-25-10-2016

The USDJPY is consolidating between the horizontal support at 103.20 and the horizontal resistance at 104.60. The moving averages confirm the lack of market direction – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the several horizontal support and resistance areas identified on the above chart, around the trend support area and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Though recent US economic news has been disappointing and the Presidential election nears, shedding some doubt on a rate hike being sooner rather than later. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

xauusd-25-10-2016

Price action has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages continue to cross frequently and move sideways though, suggesting a lack of market direction and indecision. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and if price moves above the channel resistance. A bullish move could also stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.