Daily Technical Forex Forecast 12.05.2017


EUR/USD

EUR/USD broke its previous support level 1.0863, but could not lock below it. The price formed a pin bar, in which large volume was concentrated and returned trading into the consolidation. It is necessary to note a new level of support 1.0844 – 1.0852. The main volume is concentrated in this level, which stopped the price fall.

volume euro

Nevertheless, given the local downtrend and a large accumulation of volume at the top of the chart, the probability of breakdown of this support is quite high. Thus, it is better to consider the option of opening short positions.

The trade scenario is as follows: breakdown of the level 1.0844 – 1.0852 on increased volume with further fixation of the price below it/continuing the fall, after which we can open short positions. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volumetric bar. The target is 1.0730.

sell euro

GBP/USD

The pound showed a strong fall of the price on really large volume. The new level of resistance was created, it’s 1.2877 – 1.2899.

volume gbp

As can be seen from the chart this level contains huge volume. All these facts tell that the further fall of the price is the most possible scenario.

We can enter the market after the price breaks down the yesterday’s minimum and continues falling. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. The first target is 1.2745 – 1.2773. If the price reaches this mark we should move our stop losses to the break even and hold a position until the appearance of reversal signals.

sell gbp

The alternative scenario: we can open short positions after a strong rebound of the price from the resistance too.

USD/JPY

It is necessary to highlight the new level of support 113.48 – 113.69 which contains really large volume. Also this level was created in a pin-bar that stopped the price fall.

So that it is our cornerstone for trading the yen. Given the strong uptrend we should consider long positions as a priority scenario now. We can enter the market after a strong rebound of the price from this level. A stop loss should be set below it. A potential of the deal is up to 100 pips.

buy jpy

If the price breaks down this level, we should stay out of the market and don’t try to trade against the trend.

USD/CAD

The price continues trading in the consolidation below the level of resistance 1.3785. The oil price is going up, so that we have a complicated situation for USD/CAD, as two currencies are getting stronger now.

In such a case the best decision will be to stay out of the market for this instrument today.

trade cad

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is also trading in a local consolidation below its level of resistance 0.7384 – 0.7393. So we can’t consider any deals from the current level, but until the breakout of the resistance, short positions are still in priority.

We can enter the market after a strong bearish momentum from this level. A stop loss should be set above the level 0.7393. A potential of the deal is around 80 pips.

sell aud

XAU/USD

The situation for gold is getting complicated as the price grew up on increased volume and is testing the resistance 1226.00 – 1229.10 now. Yes, the growth is smooth, but anyway it’s not a good sign.

volume gold

So we can consider opening short positions only after a strong confirming signal – the resuming of the fall on large volume from the resistance. A stop loss should be placed above the level 1229.10. A potential of the deal is around 120 pips.

sell gold

If the price starts consolidating near the global minimum 1215.70, it’s better to close the deal.

The sentiment: all our deals are confirmed except the euro and the pound. But the mood of the market for these instrument is changing, so it is a good signal for us.

sentiment

The bottom line: EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in priority for trading today. Take a closer look at USD/JPY. Other instruments have rather difficult situations.