TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 16, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around 0.7575.

AUDUSD has been up-trending but is currently struggling to swing higher. Price may start ranging between 0.7510 and 0.7575. The moving averages are still bullish and steady, suggesting more potential upside.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.7485, 0.7425 and 0.7405.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1445 UTC. FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

EURGBP has swung lower and has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is potential down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9045, 0.9140 and 0.9210. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8990 and 0.8935.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has stated the recurring cycles of coronavirus spread may continue until widespread immunity is achieved. Rates continue at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected.

French and German PMI figures will be released at 0815 and 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area.

Price continues to be indecisive and move within a large horizontal channel at 1.2060-1.2175. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. EURUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.1995 and 1.1925.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has stated the recurring cycles of coronavirus spread may continue until widespread immunity is achieved. Rates continue at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus.

French and German PMI figures will be released at 0815 and 0830 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1445 UTC. FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD found resistance around 1.3430, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price has since swung higher. GBPUSD is above recent swing highs and has formed a higher swing low, signalling the start of a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they have crossed bullish and are widening.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area, around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.3430, 1.3300 and 1.3250. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.3515.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1445 UTC. FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The USDCAD is down-trending again and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2790 and 1.2830. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1445 UTC. FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the range support area.

The USDCHF was down-trending but is currently struggling to swing lower. Price is ranging between 0.8850 and 0.8910. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist if the USDCHF closes below the range support area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8910 and 0.8935. Price could continue to find support around 0.8850.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1445 UTC. FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending and currently finding support around the bearish channel support area (as also suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is down-trending on higher time-frames and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all suggesting that price may continue to downtrend on the 1 hour time-frame.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 103.55, 103.75 and 104.15. Price may continue to find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis, relative to other 1st world countries.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a US manufacturing PMI figure at 1445 UTC. FOMC is scheduled for 1900 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1930 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish.

Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are becoming bullish, all signalling that GOLD could start up-trending. Price is still looking indecisive though and could now start ranging between 1824 and 1873.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1848, 1824 and 1816. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1873.

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