TriumphFX Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – January, February & March 2021


Previous analysis… https://analysis.dehuifx.com/2020/09/29/triumphfx-forex-analysis-aud-pairs-october-november-december-2020/

AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCAD Daily Chart
AUDCAD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and then was bearish.

AUDCAD has since reversed around the daily longer-term moving average and has been bullish. Price is currently testing a daily horizontal channel resistance area. The daily moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that AUDCAD could break higher.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the 4 hourly and daily moving averages, if price closes above the daily range resistance at 0.9655 and around the horizontal levels at 0.9470, 0.9245, 0.9010. AUDCAD may find resistance around the daily channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

AUDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCHF Daily Chart
AUDCHF 4 Hourly Chart

Price has been reversing around the horizontal channel support and resistance area, as suggested in our last AUD chart analysis.

On the daily chart, AUDCHF continues to be indecisive and is currently testing the horizontal channel resistance area. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour time-frame and is attempting to break the daily channel resistance area. The moving averages are tightening though, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6820 and 0.6860.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

AUDJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDJPY Daily Chart
AUDJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, the AUDJPY reversed around the daily longer-term moving average.

Price has recently closed above the consolidation resistance area, suggesting that AUDJPY may start up-trending. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and steady. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel on the daily time-frame.

Price is also up-trending on the 4 hour chart. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around daily bullish channel support area, around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 78.20, 77.00, 75.45 and 72.35. the AUDJPY may be rejected or reverse around the daily bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis, relative to other 1st world countries.

AUDUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDUSD Daily Chart
AUDUSD 4 Hourly Chart

Price reversed around the 23.6% daily Fib level and has since swung higher, as suggested in our last AUD chart analysis.

The AUDUSD is up-trending on the daily time-frame. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, the AUDUSD is also up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the daily and 4 hourly trend support areas, around the daily and 4 hourly bullish moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7515, 0.7375, 0.7330, 0.7220 and 0.7020.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

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