TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 04, 2021


Previous analysis…

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The AUDUSD has swung above the trend resistance area and above the moving averages, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are starting to move sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.7570, 0.7595, 0.7660, 0.7700 and 0.7755.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the recent lows at 0.8795.

Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The EURGBP is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages have become sideways, signalling that price could struggle to swing lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8845, 0.8870 and 0.8900. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.8795.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has stated the recurring cycles of coronavirus spread may continue until widespread immunity is achieved. Rates continue at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected.

The BOE will announce the official bank rate and release a monetary policy report at 1200 UTC today.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung lower, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The EURUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the EURUSD may become bullish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2055 and 1.2095.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has stated the recurring cycles of coronavirus spread may continue until widespread immunity is achieved. Rates continue at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and trend resistance area.

The GBPUSD has since been bearish and is forming a lower swing low. Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3610, 1.3680 and 1.3700. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows and horizontal support at 1.3525.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected.

The BOE will announce the official bank rate and release a monetary policy report at 1200 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has reversed around the range support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is indecisive and lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. USDCAD is ranging between 1.2755 and 1.2870.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the identified diagonal levels.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has continued to be bullish and move higher.

Price is up-trending and currently closing new highs. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. USDCHF is down-trending on higher time-frames and is currently testing a key resistance area, suggesting a potential bearish move – USDCHF could enter a retrace phase.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and is currently swinging higher, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is looking a little over-extended, signalling that a retrace move may be due.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 105.15, 104.85, 104.65 and 104.35.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis, relative to other 1st world countries.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

XAUUSD has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1833 and 1842. A bearish move could find support around 1810.

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